Gergely Gulyas, the minister in charge of PM Viktor Orban’s office, says that Moscow has a major advantage over Kiev
Given Russia’s clear upper hand in Ukraine, the Kremlin can define what constitutes victory and declare that it has been achieved whenever it sees fit, a Hungarian minister has claimed.
On Friday, Gergely Gulyas, the minister in charge of the Hungarian Prime Minister’s Office, shared his view of the conflict in Ukraine at a roundtable discussion at the University of Public Service in Budapest, which was held to promote a new book titled ‘Russian Great Power Policy 1905-2021.’
The official said that Ukraine and Russia have both found themselves in a situation that they are having a hard time getting out of. He added that the “chances of peace” right now are “poor” – though Moscow “has such an advantage” in the conflict that it could define what would constitute victory and declare it “almost at any time.”
He went on to warn against any direct involvement by NATO, adding that the EU sanctions on Russia have so far backfired, hurting the bloc more than the intended target. Gulyas noted that the Western restrictions have “brought incredible income” for Moscow so far. Furthermore, the EU’s policies, he believes, could result in Russia drifting further away from Europe while becoming closer with Asia.
While Budapest joins the US in condemning Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, this does not mean that Hungary is prepared to impose similar sanctions on Moscow, as this would go against the country’s own national interests, the minister noted.
On the topic of Ukraine, Gulyas accused Kiev of failing to protect the basic rights of ethnic minorities, particularly Hungarians.
In 2017, the Ukrainian government adopted a law aimed at removing minority languages from Ukrainian schools, which Budapest sees as discriminatory.
Kiev has long accused its Western neighbor of fanning secessionism among Ukraine’s Hungarian diaspora, including by allegedly secretly granting citizenship to ethnic Hungarians.
Brazil, Sri Lanka, and South Africa are among the countries that could take the EU’s place as markets for Russian energy
Moscow will be able to find new markets for half of the crude oil exports subject to Brussel’s looming embargo, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing analytics company Kpler.
Under the embargo, most imports of Russian crude will be banned from entering the EU starting in December, while oil product exports to the bloc will be banned starting in February. According to the International Energy Agency, this means that about 2 million barrels of Russian oil a day will be left unclaimed, unless Russia redirects their delivery.
According to Kpler, however, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and a number of Middle Eastern countries could together buy up to 1 million barrels of Russian crude a day this coming winter.
Moscow has already started redirecting some of its oil to Asia, boosting exports to India and China, after some European buyers rejected further deliveries. Russia has offered large discounts to attract buyers.
Analysts say the discount may prove tempting, and the Middle East, which could take as much as 500,000 barrels per day of Russian crude, could even decide to redirect the oil previously used domestically to export markets.
Earlier, reports emerged that Indonesia is considering buying Russian oil at a 30% discount, but is waiting to see if China and India agree to join the price cap initiative pitched by the Group of Seven (G7) in order to curb Russia’s profits from oil exports.
The UEFA-organised event will be hosted in the country, with the final in Berlin
German interior minister Nancy Faeser has demanded that Russia and Belarus be banned from the Euro 2024 football tournament, according to Der Spiegel. The magazine reports that she has written to UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin on the matter.
Germany is set to host the competition for the first time as a united entity, although the Western part staged the 1988 tournament.
Three weeks ahead of the draw for the qualifying groups in Frankfurt, the letter reportedly notes how Russia is already banned from international competitions and demands the same treatment for its close ally.
Faeser allegedly argues that Belarus, who have never qualified for a major tournament and played their UEFA Nations League home games in Serbia in June without fans present, should be excluded from all international football matches and tournaments due to its government being "essential supporters of the Russian leadership" in the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine.
Furthermore, the German politician apparently added that UEFA should also suspend Russian and Belarusian officials from "the influential bodies of international sports federations" because football should "live up to its responsible role and show a united stance against this form of disregard for human rights".
"All those responsible must be deprived of any possibility of sporting participation, influence or other representation," she reportedly continued
Meanwhile, the Athletic sayss that UEFA has already received the correspondence and will respond in due course.
Faeser and Germany's request follows a similar move from Ukrainian FA (UAF) president Andriy Pavelko, who has requested that Russia be excluded from the qualifying group draw on October 1.
Russia should be "completely isolated on the international stage, including in football" Pavelko wrote on the association's official website, adding that his organization is "currently making efforts at the UEFA level" in that regard.
UEFA and FIFA excluded all Russian teams from international football competitions in February.
This saw Russia's men's team thrown out of contention for the Qatar 2022 World Cup in November, and the women's team removed from the group phase of the Euro 2022 won by hosts England.
In early May, UEFA then announced that its sanctions would be extended to the 2022/23 season, but it hasn't yet made any formal statements on whether Russia can take part in Euro 2024 qualifying matches.
In the same statement on the UAF's website, Pavelko also repeated calls for UEFA and FIFA to step in and stop a planned friendly between Russia and Bosnia and Herzegovina scheduled to take place in Saint Petersburg in November.
"We are doing everything possible to prevent the match from taking place," he explained.
People are planning to cut back on dining out, vacations and new clothes
The vast majority of Italians are planning to reduce spending in the coming months in order to be able to pay soaring energy bills, an Ipsos survey for the Italian business association Confesercenti showed.
According to the survey, 73% of Italians said they are having difficulty or are simply unable to cope with the rise in energy bills. Meanwhile, in order to pay their bills 92% of respondents said they plan to cut spending, starting with restaurants, bars, holidays and clothing.
“The shadow of high bills and inflation extends over Christmas and beyond. The reduction in household purchasing power will translate into a sharp slowdown in consumption,” Confesercenti states in its report on the survey results, noting that it expects a €2.5 billion drop in spending in the third quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2021.
The company expects businesses, especially in the service sector, to be hit along with households, “as they find themselves squeezed between the increase in costs for electricity and gas and the slowdown in consumption.”
“Energy is a primary asset, which is the basis for the performance of any economic activity. If this becomes a rare asset, it destroys the business network and undermines social cohesion,” Confesercenti President Patrizia De Luise commented. She called on the government to take further measures to support the economy, noting that they should be focused on “ensuring the stability of economic activity.”
Inflation in Italy reached 8.4% in August, the highest in over 36 years, driven by price increases for energy goods (44.9% against 42.9% in July) and processed food (10.5%).
Moscow had earlier warned that the move would “cross the red line”
Ukraine and the US are discussing deliveries of long-range missiles that would enable Kiev to strike deep into Russia, Foreign Ministry Dmitry Kuleba said on Friday. Earlier, Moscow had warned that this would make Washington “an actual party” to the Ukraine conflict and prompt a response.
Speaking to PBS, Kuleba claimed that Ukrainian generals “have [an] excellent line of communication with American generals” and they “are discussing this issue” of supplying Kiev with longer-range ammo for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).
The minister noted that Kiev “appreciates everything the United States [has] done,” adding that it needs specific weapons to “get things done on the battleground.”
“I do not exclude the option that the United States will make a positive decision on this specific type of weapon,” he added, referring to HIMARS longer-range munitions.
As of September 15, the US has provided 16 HIMARS systems to Ukraine to help it counter Russia’s military operation, which started in late February. Washington has openly supplied Kiev with GMLRS rockets that can hit targets from up to 80km away, but has resisted calls to send long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) munitions with a range of fire of up to 300km, arguing that Ukraine does not need them.
On Thursday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that if the US decides to supply these types of munitions to Ukraine, “it would cross the red line and become an actual party to the conflict.” She added that the move would trigger “an adequate response” from Russia, which “reserves the right to defend its territory using any means available.”
On the same day, CNN reported, citing sources, that Washington does not intend to supply Kiev with the long-range HIMARS rockets that Ukraine has been requesting for months, fearing the move would be escalatory.
Energy giant EDF expects lower electricity production this year
French state energy firm EDF said this week that it expects much lower electricity production due to maintenance of nuclear reactors this year, which will cost the company approximately $29 billion in pretax earnings.
According to a company statement, 26 of EDF's 56 nuclear reactors are currently offline, partly due to corrosion issues. The firm, the world’s largest operator of nuclear plants, estimates it will produce “on the low end of a range between 280-300 terawatt-hours” of electricity from its operating nuclear plants this year, which is a 30-year low for French nuclear power output.
EDF executive director Cedric Lewandowski told lawmakers this week that five reactors are to restart in September, and the rest are expected to gradually go online by February. However, the company still forecasts its nuclear output to be below 2021 levels (360 terawatt-hours) in both 2023 and 2024.
EDF is currently in the process of being fully nationalized. The French government, which already owns 84% of the company’s shares, made an offer of €9.7 billion ($9.7 billion) to nationalize the power provider in July to save it from mounting debt.
Rosneft reports $7 billion in net income through June
Russian oil giant Rosneft has increased its net profit by 13% in the first half of 2022 despite Western sanctions. The company’s net income rose to 432 million rubles ($7.22 billion), while debt decreased by 12%, compared to the beginning of the year, strengthening the company’s “financial resilience,” the oil major said in a statement this week.
Rosneft like other Russian companies has been affected by Western sanctions. According to the oil major, tight controls helped it deal with a sharp rise in the cost of logistics, rail transport and electricity, which account for 30% of total expenses.
According to Rosneft’s CEO Igor Sechin, during the first half of the year the company “was under unprecedented pressure of adverse external factors and unlawful sanctions. However, thanks to high operational efficiency and appropriate management decisions, we were able to ensure business continuity and demonstrate stable results.”
Rosneft processed 45.8 million tons of oil through June with sales increasing by 5.7% year on year. One reason is growing demand from some of the world’s biggest economies which has helped Russia to export almost as much crude as it did before the conflict in Ukraine.
At the same time, oil sales on the domestic market have also more than doubled compared to the same period in 2021.
The oil major also noted that it had paid out dividends worth more than 441 billion rubles ($7.4 billion) for 2021 to its shareholders, including BP, despite the company’s announced plans in February to abandon its 19.75% stake in Rosneft.
South Africa’s president insists it’s not up to Washington to determine his country’s diplomatic ties
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has urged the US to not “punish” African nations by pressuring them to cut ties with Moscow, pointing to legislation passing through Congress which calls for more US intervention on the continent.
After meeting with US President Joe Biden on Friday, Ramaphosa spoke with reporters about the bill, the Countering Malign Russian Activities in Africa Act, saying the measure “will harm Africa and marginalize the continent.”
“We should not be told by anyone who we can associate with,” he added, noting South Africa’s long-held policy of non-alignment among world powers.
Though the two leaders exchanged pleasantries during their sit-down and did not mention the Russia legislation – as detailed in the White House readout of the discussion – Ramaphosa separately spoke with the Congressional Black Caucus during his visit and again offered criticism of the bill.
South Africa is “concerned [about] the possible implications for the African Continent if the ‘Countering Malign Russian Activities Bill’ were to become US law,” he said, adding that it could have “the unintended consequence of punishing the continent for efforts to advance development and growth.”
Pretoria considers both Washington and Moscow to be “strategic partners,” the president continued, urging American lawmakers not to “punish those who hold independent views,” especially at a time when “President Biden has sought to engage African countries on the basis of respect for their independence and sovereignty.”
However, US policymakers have insisted the bill does not propose any punishments for African states that opt to continue ties with Russia, with National Security Council spokesman John Kirby saying “the United States isn’t making anybody choose between us and somebody else, either when it comes to Ukraine or in the Indo-Pacific region.”
“Broadly speaking, there’s no punishment here intended for anybody,” Kirby told reporters on Friday, adding “We respect sovereignty.”
Elvira Nabiullina called the dollar and euro 'toxic,' but says Russians will always be able to convert them into rubles
Foreign currency conversion to rubles will always be possible in Russia, central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said during a press conference on Friday.
“It will always be possible to change currency into rubles, and there are absolutely, as they say, liberal rules,” she was cited as saying by RIA news agency.
At the same time, the head of the regulator noted that the US dollar and the euro have become “toxic” for Russian holders due to the risks they carry.
“As for currency conversion, indeed, the currencies to which we are used to, the reserve currencies – the dollar, the euro – have become toxic for many holders. Freezing risks arise, and the countries that issue [these currencies] are not very willing for us to actively use them,” she stated.
On August 1, the Central Bank extended restrictions on foreign currency withdrawals introduced earlier this year until March 9, 2023. Currently, depositors can withdraw a maximum of $10,000 or its equivalent in euros from each foreign currency account they hold.
Washington has offered Seoul the “full range” of its military capabilities to deter North Korea, including US nuclear forces
The US and South Korea say Pyongyang would face an “overwhelming decisive response” in the event of a nuclear strike, issuing the warning after North Korea codified its own nuclear doctrine into a new law.
Security officials from both nations gathered for an ‘Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group Meeting’ on Friday to discuss ways to “strengthen deterrence against DPRK aggression, and more broadly counter the DPRK threat,” using the North’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Much of the summit focused on nuclear issues, with the two sides pledging immediate retaliation to a potential future attack by North Korea.
“The United States and [South Korea] made clear that any DPRK nuclear attack would be met with an overwhelming and decisive response,” officials said in a joint statement, also voicing “serious concern over the DPRK’s escalatory and destabilizing messaging related to nuclear weapons use, including its adoption of the new nuclear policy law.”
Late last week, the North clarified its nuclear weapons policies in new legislation, saying it would launch a nuclear strike “automatically and immediately” if its own arsenal ever came under threat, though stressed that it keeps the bomb for defensive purposes only.
In response to the law, Washington reiterated its “ironclad and unwavering commitment to draw on the full range of its military capabilities” – including “nuclear, conventional, missile defense, and other advanced non-nuclear capabilities” – to defend South Korea, adding it would “continue to deploy and exercise strategic assets in the region.”
The US has long maintained a force of around 30,000 soldiers in South Korea and holds regular joint drills with Seoul, which have been repeatedly denounced by Pyongyang as provocative, and ‘rehearsals’ for an invasion.
Western officials have been predicting an imminent North Korean nuclear test in recent months, claiming the military is preparing to hold its first trial since 2017 despite no official announcement. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, however, recently vowed to advance his country’s atomic arsenal “at the fastest possible speed,” and has insisted the military must be prepared for a nuclear deployment against “hostile” foreign powers “at any time.”
